Vancouver Home Sales Drop 20%—Lowest Buyer Confidence Since 2019

Inventory is climbing, prices are slipping, and interest rate cuts are just around the corner. If you're in the Vancouver real estate market right now, you're probably wondering: is this a warning sign—or an opportunity in disguise?

Here's the truth: when uncertainty rises, the people who win are the ones who can read the moment correctly.

Let’s break it down.

📊 Vancouver Market Snapshot (February 2025)

• 📉 Sales down 20% month-over-month, and 12% year-over-year

• 🏘️ Active listings up 32% YoY (Condos alone saw a 40% inventory spike)

• ⚠️ Sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 37%, the lowest level since 2019

• 📦 New listings fell 19% MoM, but are still higher than last year

• 📉 Prices dipped 0.3% across Metro Vancouver

• 🧱 Detached inventory is now at decade highs, while building permits are at 50-year lows

🧠 What This Means for Vancouver Buyers

Right now, you've got maximum selection, soft pricing, and very little competition. It’s a rare combo—especially in Vancouver.

But here's the catch: new construction is slowing dramatically. So while resale inventory is peaking now, it's not going to stay that way. Especially for detached homes, which are seeing their best selection in years.

Detached sales in West Van and Vancouver West dropped 42% YoY, marking the lowest February volume since 2012.

Translation? This is your leverage window—act while you can.

🏦 Canadian Macro Trends: Turbulence + Rate Cuts Incoming

🌀 U.S. tariff threats and global uncertainty have spooked buyers and crushed consumer sentiment:

• 📉 Consumer confidence hit the 3rd lowest level on record

• 💬 62.6% of Canadians say now is a bad time to make a major purchase

• 📉 Business sentiment is down hard, especially in manufacturing and wholesale

But here’s the silver lining:

• 💰 Bond yields are tanking → fixed mortgage rates are set to follow

• 🔮 75% chance of a BoC rate cut next week; another likely in April

• 📉 Target rate: 2% by summer

• 🏦 Insured mortgage rates could drop to the low 3s—or even high 2s

Expect demand to come roaring back in the second half of 2025.

🔥 Risk Watch: Inflation Could Return in Late 2025

While rate cuts are inbound, economists are flagging future inflation risks:

• 📈 Input costs up 3.7% MoM

• 🏭 Factory prices up 6% YoY

• 💸 Wage growth hitting 6% annually (strongest since 2001)

• 📈 20% of Canadian businesses expect to raise prices 6%+ in 2025

Bottom line? The BoC isn’t bringing rates back to 1%—this cycle’s floor is around 2%.

🔍 What to Do Right Now

✅ Buyers: This is your shot. If you're shopping for a condo, luxury home, or single-family property, this is the most negotiating power you’ll have all year. Don’t wait until rate cuts hit and prices bounce.

✅ Sellers: Properly priced homes are still selling. But if you overreach, you’ll sit—and spring competition is coming. Price smart, prep properly, and move before demand roars back.

📞 Want clarity on timing your move? Let’s map out a custom game plan for your situation.
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