Vancouver Housing Market & Economic Trends – February 2025

The real estate landscape in Vancouver is shifting rapidly, and February’s data is making that clear. Inventory is climbing, sales have dipped, and a significant construction slowdown is raising concerns about future supply. Meanwhile, macroeconomic trends—including potential interest rate cuts and economic uncertainty—are setting the stage for a crucial turning point in the market.

So, what does this all mean if you’re buying, selling, or investing? Let’s break it down.

📊 Macro Trends: What’s Moving the Market?

🔥 Interest Rate Cuts Are Coming—But Will They Be Enough?

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to begin cutting rates, with a 0.25% reduction likely in March and another cut expected later this year. While this should help with affordability, the big question is: Will lower rates be enough to reignite the market?

• Canada’s bond yields have plummeted, signaling that markets expect further rate cuts.
• Economic uncertainty is growing, especially around the potential for new US tariffs, which could push the Bank of Canada to cut rates even further.
• Even with lower rates, high household debt and affordability challenges remain a key issue.

🏦 Labour Market Concerns: Are the Jobs Numbers Real?

There’s a lot of conflicting employment data right now, making it difficult to gauge the true strength of the job market:

• One report showed a 76,000-job gain in January, while another reported a 56,000-job loss—both can’t be right.
• Unemployment is rising in major cities like Vancouver and Toronto, hitting its highest level (outside of pandemic years) in over a decade.
• Wage growth has slowed to 3.5%, its lowest level since April 2022, suggesting the economy may be cooling faster than expected.

📉 GDP & Housing Outlook: Is a Correction Coming?

The latest GDP numbers paint a concerning picture:

• Canada’s GDP shrank in Q4 2024, marking seven consecutive quarters of declining per capita GDP—an alarming sign of economic stagnation.
• Household debt remains extremely high, meaning that even as rates fall, many households are still struggling with expensive borrowing costs.
• If economic conditions continue to weaken, we could see an extended buyer’s market in real estate.

🏠 Vancouver Housing Market: Are We Entering a Buyer’s Market?

📉 Sales Drop, Inventory Surges

• Home sales declined 3.5% in January, though they remain higher year-over-year.
• New listings surged 30% month-over-month—one of the biggest January increases in over a decade.
• Active inventory is now at its highest level since 2015, creating more choices for buyers and putting downward pressure on prices.

💰 Prices Under Pressure

• Average selling prices declined across all housing segments despite a slight increase in the benchmark HPI price.
• The sales-to-new listings ratio dropped below 40%, the lowest since 2019—historically a sign that sellers will need to adjust pricing expectations.

For buyers, this shift means more negotiating power and the ability to shop for deals as the market rebalances. For sellers, it signals a need for realistic pricing to attract serious buyers.

🚧 Construction Declines: The Coming Supply Crunch

While today’s market is shifting toward buyers, a longer-term supply shortage could be brewing due to a construction slowdown.

• Housing starts fell 13% in December, primarily due to a sharp decline in new condo projects.
• Single-family home construction is at its lowest level since 2009, meaning fewer new detached homes will be available in the coming years.
• Building permit values dropped 13.4% in B.C., with multi-unit permits plunging 37%! This is a major red flag for future supply.

While buyers may have an advantage today, the lack of new housing construction could lead to another housing crunch in a few years.

🔎 What’s Next?

If you’re a buyer, this market shift is in your favor—more listings, softer prices, and motivated sellers. If you’re a seller, pricing strategy is everything right now—overpricing could leave you sitting on the market longer than expected.

With interest rates expected to drop further, demand could pick back up later in the year, but the impact will depend on economic conditions and affordability.

Want to discuss how these trends impact your buying, selling, or investment goals? Let’s create a strategy tailored to you!

📞 Book a consultation: Schedule Here
🔎 Check your BC Assessment values: Visit Here
🏡 Start your property search: Vancouver Homes

Stay ahead of Vancouver’s evolving real estate market—let’s make 2025 your year! 🚀

– Kyle Mark
Vancouver Real Estate Specialist